Model validation
Do the AI's scores predict actual stock returns? Each daily scoring run records the price at time of scoring. Forward returns are filled in automatically 5 and 20 trading days later.
5d observations
1000
20d observations
964
Top-bucket 5d hit rate
39%
Top-bucket 20d hit rate
60%
Avg 5-day return by score bucket
Avg 20-day return by score bucket
| Score range | 5d obs | Avg 5d return | 5d hit rate | 20d obs | Avg 20d return | 20d hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75 – 100 | 117 | -1.02% | 38.5% | 112 | +0.29% | 59.8% |
| 50 – 74 | 402 | +0.17% | 58.5% | 382 | +0.44% | 59.4% |
| 25 – 49 | 353 | +0.26% | 53.0% | 342 | +0.50% | 52.9% |
| 0 – 24 | 128 | +0.04% | 52.3% | 128 | +3.53% | 68.8% |
Hit rate = % of observations where the stock produced a positive return over the period. 5d data appears ~5 trading days after scoring; 20d data appears ~20 trading days after scoring. Scores from before this feature was launched show no data.